As you work to build a financial future for yourself and the ones you love, it is beneficial to have a perspective on the world around you and the outside factors that may impact how your wealth can grow and thrive in a global economy.
March was yet another interesting month for the U.S. Unemployment notched down to 3.8% (good for workers with businesses still finding it hard to find help) a bit lower than February’s 3.9%, not sure if the Fed will like this or not. Inflation continues to soften in the news cycle with the shift to when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start to lower interest rates. Inflation notched up a little to 3.5% year over year in March (heading lower overall with the Fed being very confident in the direction) and off-peak numbers of 9.1% from June 2022 falling 61.5% from highs. I am confident you already know that some of the inflation from 2022 is permanent with most commodity-based items coming down substantially from peaks.
On the international front, recession (slowing of growth) continues to be a theme with bright spots of heightened economic activity here and there. The Eurozone saw the unemployment tick up to 6.5% (still a good number for them), the PPI (Producer Price Index) NSA year over year at -8.3% (signal inflation has weekend a lot), Retail Sales CA year over year came in at -.70 (not great but better than expected for February), (Source: FactSet economic calendar). In Asia Pacific economies: Japan didn’t find much data over the past couple of weeks but interest rates are some of the lowest in the world (good for consumers and businesses). China’s inflation coming in at .10% year over year for March (talk about crazy low inflation). Australia’s NAB Business Confidence came in at 1.1 for March (far better than expected) (Source: FactSet economic calendar). As a result of U.S. companies deriving 40% +/- of earnings from outside this country and the current strength of the U.S. economy, I still feel investment in stocks will continue to favor the U.S. in the coming months with most markets outside the U.S. continuing to play catch up.
The market (measured by the S&P 500 ETF, SPY) added a solid 2.95% +/- in March slowing a bit from February’s freight train of 5.22% +/- and continuing to hit all-time highs and ending at 10.05% +/- for the year. I expect markets over the next month to continue to hit highs, potentially reaching 12% for the year while fluctuating in the 2-5% range as earing season unfolds. At AWMS, we still own equities/stocks for the same reasons we always have for their long-term growth and consistent dividend cash flow. Although markets can be volatile at times, dividend and interest payments continue to pour in like Dettifoss Falls.
Please continue to make healthy decisions like washing your hands, getting plenty of sleep, eating balanced meals, staying hydrated, and taking a stroll if you feel like it. Reach out to a friend or loved one and have a great conversation.
Until next time, be well and keep putting one foot in front of the other. If you are not a client and would like to receive our newsletter or our monthly blog update, please use the contact tab on our website and drop us an email.
Sincerely,
Thaddeus Phelps, CEO/CIO
This commentary on this website reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of an Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC employee, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC or performance returns of any Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data, or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.