Private: Wealth in a changing world
As you work to build a financial future for yourself and the ones you love, it is beneficial to have perspective on the world around you and the outside factors that may impact how your wealth can grow and thrive in a global economy.
September was yet another interesting month for the U.S. Unemployment, no data yet for September, with August’s at 4.3% (basically full employment and a lot better for employers looking for people). Inflation (CPI) no data yet for September versus the prior month of 2.9% and still trending in the correct direction for the Fed’s target of 2% vs highs of 9.1% in 2022. We could see mortgage interest rates drop by as much as 1% by early next year as the Fed sees numbers that don’t scare the academic in them. Interesting fun fact, if Unemployment is reasonably low (which it is in most of the world) and Inflation is in check, more or less, this feeds into stable consumer spending and a healthy slow slow-growing economy in the months ahead.
On the international front, thoughts of growth are starting to fill the air and we are seeing more signs of stability. The Eurozone’s Unemployment for August came in at 6.3% (about in their sweet spot +/-), CPI (inflation) Flash year over year was 2.2% for September (low inflation has to affect all global players). In Asia Pacific economies: Japan’s Unemployment Rate at 2.6% for August (looks like a tight labor market, potentially inflationary), China’s CPI (inflation) year over year came in at -.30% for September, a touch higher than the prior month (lower inflation numbers are good for everyone). Australia’s Business Confidence jumped from 4 to 7.3 in September. As a result of U.S. companies deriving 40% +/- of earnings from outside this country and the current strength of the U.S. economy, I still feel investment in stocks will continue to favor the U.S. over the long run with most markets outside the U.S. continuing to play catch-up.
The market (measured by the S&P 500 ETF, SPY) added 3.28% +/- in September, adding to August’s 2.05 +/-, and bringing us 13.66% +/- for 2025 (closing in on the end of the year in great shape). Markets are a little overvalued (nowhere near all-time high valuations) with my expectation of choppy, sideways performance in the coming weeks. At AWMS, we still own equities/stocks for the same reasons we always have for their long-term growth and consistent dividend cash flow. Although markets can be volatile at times, dividend and interest payments continue to pour in like Dettifoss Falls.
Please continue to make healthy decisions like washing your hands, getting plenty of sleep, eating balanced meals, staying hydrated, and taking a stroll if you feel like it. Reach out to a friend or loved one and have a great conversation.
Until next time, be well and keep putting one foot in front of the other. If you are not a client and would like to receive our newsletter or our monthly blog update, please use the contact tab on our website and drop us an email.
Sincerely,
Thaddeus D. Phelps, CEO/CIO
PS: Understanding what you are paying for advisory services can be important. Our advisory services are priced in the medium-to-low range. If the postings on your statements under “Transaction Details” and labeled “MGMTFEE ADVISOR” are not adequate, we do create reports on our portal at awm-s.com for your convenience. Please reach out to srphelps@awm-s.com if you have any questions.
This commentary on this website reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of an Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC employee, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC or performance returns of any Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.