Private Wealth in a changing world
As you work to build a financial future for yourself and the ones you love, it is beneficial to have perspective on the world around you and the outside factors that may impact how your wealth can grow and thrive in a global economy.
August was yet another interesting month for the U.S. Unemployment: was unchanged at 4.1% for August (basically full employment). Inflation (CPI) was unchanged at 3.4% for August (resuming its downward pace but may be on pause with recent oil price surges) and is still trending in the direction of the Fed’s target of 2% vs highs of 9.1% in 2022. I still believe mortgage interest rates will continue to drop in the coming months as demand is plagued by high interest rates and real estate prices (interesting to see them rise in the past month, maybe the banks did not get the message). Interesting fun fact (a little in the weeds): Most of the conversation with the “talking heads” this past month centered around interest rates and the Fed (Federal Reserve Board). It is still very odd when the “talking heads” talk about this. I will say again, it’s like they don’t understand, the US is part of global financial landscape, inflation has been trending down, Fed moves take 18 months to take full effect, the US economy is not blowing any doors off, and the oil situation which was a glut before the Iran thing and will be a glut after, or do they? Maybe their sole job is to keep the average person confused month in month out, so they keep coming back hoping for a nugget of truth. It still seems highly unlikely that interest rates, set by the Fed, will rise and have a greater likelihood of going lower in the next 12 months while they move closer to parity with the world on rates.
On the international front, thoughts of growth are starting to fill the air with oil prices causing some uncertainty regarding continued momentum. The Eurozone’s unemployment is sitting at 6.4% pretty close to the lowest it has been in 5 years (historically a pretty fair number, oddly enough almost 50% higher than the US) and CPI (Consumer Price Index/inflation) for July ticked up to 2.9% year over year (I still believe inflation is slowing down). In Asia Pacific economies: Japan’s unemployment ticked down to 2.4% for July (a pretty good number for them) and the CPI ticked up to 2% for July year over year (lower than most). China’s unemployment for July was 5.2% (decent number for them) and CPI (inflation) year over year was at .8% for August (definitely helping the global inflation story). Australia’s Unemployment ticked up to 4.5% for July (a pretty good number) and CPI ticked down to 3.5% year over year for July (cooling off the last couple months). As a result of U.S. companies deriving 40% +/- of earnings from outside this country and the current strength of the U.S. economy, I still feel investment in stocks will continue to favor the U.S. over the long run with most markets outside the U.S. continuing to play catch-up.
The market (measured by the S&P 500 ETF, SPY) was up by 2.72% +/- in August, bringing us to a still blazing 12.52% +/- year to date for 2026 and a fantastic pace as we move towards the end of the 3rd quarter. I believe market valuations have moved back to a little below fair value with more volatility to come and upside as we move to close out 2026. At AWMS, we still own equities/stocks for the same reasons we always have for their long-term growth and consistent dividend cash flow. Although markets can be volatile at times, dividend and interest payments continue to pour in like Gull Foss Falls.
Please continue to make healthy decisions like washing your hands, getting plenty of sleep, eating balanced meals, staying hydrated, and taking a stroll if you feel like it. Reach out to a friend or loved one and have a great conversation.
Until next time, be well and keep putting one foot in front of the other. If you are not a client and would like to receive our newsletter or our monthly blog update, please use the contact tab on our website and drop us an email.
Sincerely,
Thaddeus D. Phelps, CEO/CIO
PS: Understanding what you are paying for advisory services can be important. Our advisory services are priced in the medium-to-low range on average. If the postings on your statements under “Transaction Details” and labeled “MGMTFEE ADVISOR” are not adequate, we do create reports on our portal at awm-s.com monthly. Please reach out to srphelps@awm-s.com if you have any questions or would like a copy sent.
This commentary on this website reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of an Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC employee, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC or performance returns of any Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Advance Wealth Management Service LLC manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance has no guarantee of future results.