Private: Wealth in a changing world
As you work to build a financial future for yourself and the ones you love, it is beneficial to have perspective on the world around you and the outside factors that may impact how your wealth can grow and thrive in a global economy.
April was yet another interesting month for the U.S. Unemployment came in at 4.2%, was flat based on March’s 4.2% (still decent for businesses looking for help and near historical lows/full employment). Inflation (CPI) ticked down a little year over year to 2.2% in April versus the prior month of 2.4% (experts said this wouldn’t happen for years, odd) and still in the right direction for the Fed’s target of 2% vs highs of 9.1% in 2022. We could see mortgage interest rates drop by as much as 1% by the end of the year as the economy continues to slowly expand.
On the international front, thoughts of growth are starting to fill the air, and we are seeing some signs of stability. The Eurozone’s CPI Harmonized Flash (inflation) year over year came in at 2.2% in line with the prior month (very good), Retail Sales CA year over year for March came in up 1.5% (Are purse strings starting to loosen?) and Unemployment for March came in at 6.2% just a touch higher than the prior month (pretty close to Europe’s sweet spot for unemployment). In Asia Pacific economies: Japan’s unemployment rate for March came in at 2.5% (a very tough environment for employers), PMI Services (purchases managers index) came in at 52.4 for April (above 50 is a sign of expansion), and Real Household Consumption year over year for March can in at 2.1% (blowing the previous number on to another planet). China’s CPI (inflation) came in at -.1% year over year for April (slowing inflation in the second largest economy has to be good). Australia’s retail sales for March came in at .3% month over month, blowing the previous month’s increase by 50% (not too shabby), and the Unemployment rate for April came in at 4.1%, in line with the previous month (stable is good). As a result of U.S. companies deriving 40% +/- of earnings from outside this country and the current strength of the U.S. economy, I still feel investment in stocks will continue to favor the U.S. in the coming months, with most markets outside the U.S. continuing to play catch-up.
The market (measured by the S&P 500 ETF, SPY) added -.87% +/- in April, adding to March’s -5.85 +/-, and off -5.38% +/- for 2025 (Not the greatest of starts but fair based on two fantastic years in a row.). Markets are even more attractive, upside back in view and valuations more on trend than above. At AWMS, we still own equities/stocks for the same reasons we always have for their long-term growth and consistent dividend cash flow. Although markets can be volatile at times, dividend and interest payments continue to pour in like Cumberland Falls.
Please continue to make healthy decisions like washing your hands, getting plenty of sleep, eating balanced meals, staying hydrated, and taking a stroll if you feel like it. Reach out to a friend or loved one and have a great conversation.
Until next time, be well and keep putting one foot in front of the other. If you are not a client and would like to receive our newsletter or our monthly blog update, please use the contact tab on our website and drop us an email.
Sincerely,
Thaddeus D. Phelps, CEO/CIO
PS: Understanding what you are paying for advisory services can be important. Our advisory services are priced in the medium-to-low range. If the postings on your statements under “Transaction Details” and labeled “MGMTFEE ADVISOR” are not adequate, we do create reports on our portal at awm-s.com for your convenience. Please reach out to srphelps@awm-s.com if you have any questions.
This commentary on this website reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of an Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC employee, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC or performance returns of any Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.